As of April 28, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's major markets was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from last week and 27,000 tons from last Monday. From a fundamental perspective, the peak consumption season in the first half of the year is at its end, and the operating rate of downstream processing industries may weaken. However, with the arrival of the May Day holiday, the willingness of downstream companies to stock up before the holiday has increased. With the continuous destocking of social warehouses, the price of aluminum has fallen below 700,000 tons, which is at a low level in the past five years. Consumption resilience and social warehouse destocking provide support for aluminum prices.

However, the traditional peak consumption season is coming to an end, and coupled with the continued uncertainty of exports, subsequent consumption may be under pressure to gradually slow down. In terms of the macro aspect, as the United States grants a 90-day exemption period to some trading partners, market sentiment has improved to a certain extent. Coupled with the rush to install photovoltaic companies, downstream processing companies choose to replenish raw material stocks at a low price, leading to a decline in visible stocks. However, China and the United States have not yet reached an agreement on tariffs, and the future direction is still unclear. On the other hand, downstream processing companies reported that orders have declined month-on-month. In addition to the pre-holiday just-needed stocking, the willingness to withdraw funds and hold currency to wait and see is stronger. On the whole, aluminum ingots continue to destock, and there is little overall change on the supply side. In addition, important domestic meetings have also given the market certain favorable policy expectations. The overall macro environment continues to give aluminum prices room for recovery. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will test the stability of the 20,000 mark. It is recommended to clear inventory during the holidays.