1. Background of the 2025 demand forecast The reason for proposing the 2025 demand forecast is due to the many uncertainties facing the global steel market. Starting from 2023, changes in the external economic situation, fluctuations in infrastructure investment, and the promotion of environmental protection policies have had a profound impact on the supply and demand balance of the steel industry. China's steel consumption is expected to be 863 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. This substantial reduction shows the fatigue of the market, and the subsequent slowdown in demand in 2025 to 1.5% indicates that in the case of a sluggish market, steel demand may enter a stage of seeking balance.

2. Global steel demand It is worth noting that although China's steel demand has declined, the global market has shown different dynamics. It is expected that by 2024, global steel consumption will fall to 1.747 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; however, by 2025, global demand is expected to resume growth, reaching 1.758 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%.

The reason is partly due to the increased investment in infrastructure in developed regions such as the United States and Europe, which has driven the demand for steel. Emerging markets and developing countries are also increasing their demand driven by urbanization and industrialization. Taking this opportunity, China's steel industry may also reflect on its own structure and make timely adjustments to adapt to changes in the international market.

3. Challenges and opportunities in the steel industry Although the reduction in demand has undoubtedly brought challenges to the steel industry in 2025, the turning point is also implied in it. In the face of changes in demand, steel companies need to accelerate the pace of structural optimization and transformation and upgrading, and pay attention to green development and the production of high-quality goods.

For example, the rational use of resources in the steel industry, the upgrading of production processes, and the compliance with laws and regulations are all key to promoting the sustainable development of the steel industry. The integration of the domestic market and the linkage of the international market may create new opportunities for the steel industry, especially in terms of digital transformation, where many companies have begun to actively deploy.

4. The two-sided nature of the policy environment Entering 2024, as the country further emphasizes the implementation of environmental protection policies, the steel industry will face more stringent tests. Supply-side structural reform will continue to exert its strength, encouraging companies to continue to explore in the direction of quality-based pricing and innovation-driven. At this time, the policy environment may have a two-way impact: it may limit the decline in production in the short term, and it may also encourage enterprises to invest in green development and intelligent manufacturing to achieve counter-cyclical growth in the post-epidemic era.

5. Outlook for Industry Development With the recovery of the global market and the gradual recovery of domestic demand, the future development of the steel industry is still full of hope. Although the short-term decline may make the market feel uneasy, in the long run, the adjustment of demand is still an important opportunity for the industry to repair itself.

If steel companies want to be invincible in global competition, they must adapt to market changes, not only seeking breakthroughs in product quality, but also pursuing excellence in management model, production efficiency and green development.

In summary, in 2025, China's steel demand may usher in a slight decline, but the fundamental development potential of China's steel industry still exists. At the same time, the slight rebound in global steel demand also heralds the hope of world economic recovery, which deserves the attention and grasp of all industry participants.